Academy Award-winning director Martin Scorsese is the type of director who studios can bank on because his name draws people to movie theater seats around the world. The Departed, Goodfellas, Taxi Driver, Gangs of New York, and Mean Streets are just a few of his extremely successful movies. But his upcoming Netflix-produced movie, The Irishman, may not get a chance at a full theatrical run.
Netflix’s film division chief, Scott Stuber, and chief content officer, Ted Sarandos, are discussing the possibility of a theatrical release of The Irishman with AMC Theatres in the United States and Cineplex in Canada, according to The New York Times. Other major theater chains, including Regal, aren’t interested in talking to the streaming company at all. Netflix is facing the same issue it’s dealt with for years: an unwillingness to adhere to theater chains’ distribution policies. Chains request that studios set a minimum 12-week exclusive release window for theaters, rather than making films available simultaneously on streaming platforms. Netflix won’t agree to that stipulation because it doesn’t serve its audience, which is already paying for its original content and doesn’t necessarily want to pay a second time to see that content in theaters.
The dilemma creates a major fork in the road for Netflix going forward, especially as the streaming wars kick off. Netflix is a subscriber-focused company. It wants to do right by its more than 150 million customers. That makes theatrical releases less important. Normally, that’s fine, but the Times reports that Scorsese is pushing the company on a “robust national theatrical release.” Like so many famous directors, he’d still prefer the perceived prestige (and improved technical conditions) of a big-screen movie.
Netflix is left with a problem. Its business has two facets: building its subscriber base and securing content. After Paramount Pictures walked away from The Irishman because of the $160 million budget, Netflix saw an opportunity. The company was losing precious licensed content as Disney, WarnerMedia, and NBCUniversal started revving up to launch their own streaming services. The company needed a huge win. It wanted a movie that would bring people to the service and keep them signed up in hopes of more. A new mobster movie from the king of mobster cinema, with a cast led by Robert De Niro and Al Pacino, sounded like a good bet. It was a win-win: The Irishman needed Netflix to fund it, and Netflix needed a Scorsese picture.
But the issue is that Scorsese and Netflix have different ideas about what constitutes a successful moment. Scorsese wants his movie playing in every theater; Netflix wants 50 million streams in the first four days of release. That conflict will continue to be an issue as Netflix tries to secure overall deals with Hollywood’s biggest names. Netflix has spent more than $1 billion on signing famous creators to sweeping contracts in hopes of securing the next Avengers: Endgame or Game of Thrones. Ryan Murphy ($300 million), Shonda Rhimes ($150 million), and Game of Thrones creators David Benioff and D.B. Weiss ($250 million) are just some of the creators the company has locked down with overall production deals.
While Murphy and Rhimes are likely to produce TV series, Benioff and Weiss have their eyes on cinema. They’re working on a Star Wars trilogy for Disney, for example. If Benioff and Weiss were to make Netflix movies, it’s a fair bet that they’d want national releases like Scorsese.
Netflix is easing up a little with its theatrical release restrictions, working with smaller chains like Landmark and Alamo Drafthouse to offer one-week releases of movies like Bird Box. Netflix is willing to repeat the distribution method it employed for its Oscar-winning Roma, which spent 21 days in theaters before it was available to stream, according to the Times. But that still doesn’t meet some chains’ minimum demands, and it’s still a big ask when Netflix’s primary audience is subscribers sitting at home.
Deciding to forgo a full theatrical release for The Irishman would send the message to famous directors like Scorsese that Netflix can’t or won’t bend the rules. Adhering to AMC’s policies might have an adverse effect on Netflix’s subscriber base, who are used to seeing a Netflix Original on their homepage the day it’s released. There’s added pressure from the intensifying streaming wars, which have more companies competing for the same audience — and for those overall talent deals. (You could call that aspect of the business “the creator wars.”)
Disney, Warner Bros., and Universal are already big theatrical release players — especially Disney. Disney has already made more money at the global box office this year than any studio has made in history. These companies can afford to hold back on the streaming end because theatrical release is part of their core strategy. Amazon, to its credit, is also fine with adhering to theater chain policies. That’s why Netflix-averse directors like Christopher Nolan are open to working with Jeff Bezos’ company.
And if AMC gave in to Netflix’s demands to reduce exclusive theatrical windows, it would have to compromise for other streaming companies as well, and it has every reason to refuse to cave. Adam Aron, CEO of AMC Theatres, told the Times that the company needed to maintain “terms that respect AMC’s important and close relationships with our longstanding studio partners, including Disney, Warner Brothers, Universal, Sony, Paramount, Lionsgate and so many other filmmakers who are the lifeblood of our substantial business.”
So Netflix has a decision to make with The Irishman, just as it did with Roma, and the importance and complications of that decision are the reason top executives like Sarandos are working on the deals with theater chains. The Irishman is more than just a movie for the company — it’s a big step toward determining how Netflix will compete for subscribers, creators, and awards as the streaming wars commence.