Natixis Global Asset Management | Condiciones actuales de los mercados: Capital Market Notes por Dave Lafferty
En su nota, Dave Lafferty analiza algunos de los temas más relevantes en los mercados hasta la fecha.
A medida que riesgos significativos continúan apareciendo en el mercado y la volatilidad se incrementa, muchos de estos temas ofrecen una gran oportunidad para considerar en sus análisis las perspectivas únicas de nuestros expertos afiliados y las soluciones que comparten con el fin de aprovechas las actuales condiciones de los mercados.
A continuación te presentamos un resumen del contenido del documento:
- “China se desacelera. Acostúmbrese.” – A medida que China se aleja de ser una economía basada en la manufactura, su crecimiento continuará desacelerándose. La desaceleración de China es un proceso y no un acontecimiento y los inversionistas no deben permitir que paralice a sus portafolios.
- David Herro: “Solamente porque China no está creciendo a niveles de 8-9%, y vemos un debilitamiento, no significa que el valor de cada negocio en el mundo se reduzca en 7 u 8% menos de lo que valía hace 4 días. Y esto es lo que sucede en los mercados globales actualmente, además de que es el tipo de obstáculo macroeconómico que podemos aprovechar – aunque sea difícil – ya que hay una tendencia a no preferir las acciones cuando caen, y solamente considerarla cuando suben, lo cual resulta negativo para las leyes de la oferta y la demanda.”
- La volatilidad – La experiencia de los niveles tan bajos en el índice VIX posterior a la crisis al parecer ya quedó atrás y podemos esperar que la volatilidad seguirá siendo elevada.
- Petróleo – Consideramos que la caída en los precios del petróleo es en su mayoría motivada por la oferta, y no a la demanda. Estimamos que los petroprecios deberán recuperarse a cerca de $45-$65 por barril, pero no en los próximos 6-18 meses.
- Recesión Global – Como mencionamos anteriormente, consideramos que la caída en los precios del petróleo no es causada por la demanda y por lo tanto no parece ser un augurio de una recesión global. Aunque no puede descartarse una recesión global, no pensamos que sea probable. (ej., <50% de probabilidades).
Si requieres información adicional, por favor no dudes en contactarnos.
David F. Lafferty, CFA
SVP – Chief Market Strategist
Seven Observations to Start the Year
As we noted a week ago, 2016 has started off with a thud. Global equity markets are off, oil is plunging, yields are falling, and the credit markets are under stress. Other than China slowing – and the negative consequences of that – investor concerns are wide ranging across assets and markets. Below are seven (random) observations about the current markets and what investors can do to cope with it.
#1: China is slowing. Get used to it.
The extraordinary growth rates that China experienced over the past 20+ years were a significant tailwind to the global economy and capital markets, especially emerging markets. But China is now slowing and for good reasons. The economy has become too dependent on heavy manufacturing, infrastructure/construction, and exports. It needs to transition to a more stable and sustainable growth model based on domestic consumption and services. This transition will likely take years (decades?), but is a necessary and positive shift that must occur as China grows. As a source of both headline risk and portfolio volatility, China’s slowdown will be with us for a while. It is a process, not an event. Investors should not let China’s rebalancing paralyze them or their portfolios.
#2: The low volatility regime may be over.
We expect volatility, both realized and implied, to remain elevated. Post-Great Financial Crisis (2007-09), risk levels had been relatively subdued as a result of China’s debt-fueled growth and extraordinarily easy and synchronized monetary policies around the world. China’s slowdown (see #1) and gradual tightening by the U.S. Fed will challenge both of these backstops. As measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), we believe the capital markets have moved into a higher volatility regime since August 2015. Gone are the days of sub-15% equity volatility that prevailed for much of 2013 – 2015.
#3: Oil is not foreshadowing a global recession.
The collapse in oil prices, from over $100/barrel in mid-2014 to near $28/barrel today, has been driven by a complex mix of factors including sluggish demand, increased supply, and a stronger U.S. dollar. To be sure, global demand has not been robust, but it is still rising. At the margin, we believe that most of the price collapse is a function of excess supply, not insufficient demand. U.S. fracking technology combined with OPEC’s unwillingness to curb production has created a supply glut driving prices down. Because we view oil’s fall-off as mostly supply-driven, as opposed to demand-driven, it is an unlikely harbinger of a global recession.
#4: Oil won’t languish forever.
The current price with WTI oil (West Texas Intermediate grade), near $28/barrel, is unsustainably low. While the marginal cost of production varies around the world and by asset, we believe that sub-$40/barrel prices will eventually reduce production. Currently however, some producers are hedged, having sold their production forward at higher prices. We believe some sovereign producers will continue to increase production as prices fall to support their fiscal budgets/social spending. Moreover, existing oil supply in storage is at historically high levels. However, these conditions aren’t permanent. We expect the flow of oil to decline over time, eventually pulling supply back in line with sluggish demand. We believe prices should rebound closer to $45 – $65/barrel at this new equilibrium, but not for another 6 – 18 months.
#5: A global recession is unlikely.
Some forecasters see the signs of a coming global recession. Three common warnings often cited are that global manufacturing has been weakening (most acutely in the U.S. and China), commodity prices falling, and credit spreads widening. We remain skeptical. U.S. manufacturing is struggling as a natural byproduct of a strong dollar. However, it is a much smaller component of the U.S. economy than the service sector, which by most accounts, is robust. China, the world’s manufacturing engine is slowing, but this will be a managed process (See #1.) Some commodity prices, such as copper, indicate stress coming from China, but the sell-off in oil is more a function of supply than demand (See #3.) Lastly, widening credit spreads in the bond market are dominated by corporate fears in the energy sector, but overall credit stress probably reflects broader fears of Fed tightening and illiquidity –not a recession. Given China’s slowdown and the strength inthe U.S. dollar (along with the length of expansion already) a global recession cannot be ruled out. It is possible, but for now, we don’t believe it’s probable (i.e., <50% chance).
#6: Risk assets have gotten cheaper.
Given that many markets have been in sell-off mode since the beginning of the year, perhaps this is obvious. Even so, it is important to remember that valuations generally improve during turbulent times. Using forward earnings, the S&P 500® P/E has dropped from 17.4x to 15.4x, MSCI EAFE from 15.5x to 14.0x, and the MSCI EM from 13.2x to 10.6x from 12/31/15 to 1/19/16 (Bloomberg). Across the major indices, equity valuations have returned to roughly year-end 2013 levels.
In the credit markets, spreads over base Treasury yields have widened by almost 1% in both U.S. and global high yield bonds (Barclays Capital). We’ve already noted that oil and other commodities are now at prices below their production costs. Conversely, while “risk assets” have gotten cheaper, “safer” assets like high quality/sovereign bonds have become more expensive with falling yields. Through the storm, investors should pay attention to what is on sale vs. what’s priced at a premium. When in doubt, rebalance, rebalance, rebalance…
#7: Time horizon and risk tolerance matter more.
It’s critical to remember that portfolio decisions are unique to each investor: first with regard to time horizon and second with regard to risk tolerance. These two factors take on greater importance when prices are falling because investors feel little stress or conflict when assets are rising. Risk tolerance matters because it controls the ability to buy assets when prices are falling. Investors can’t take advantage of the benefits of rebalancing if they refuse to buy assets that are out of favor. Time horizon matters because the current storm is unlikely to pass quickly. None of the “problems” currently driving the markets (i.e., slowing China, Fed rate hikes, a strong dollar, and over-supplied commodity markets) will be remedied any time soon. The current market environment is likely to reward patience and risk-taking while punishing fear and shortsightedness.
David F. Lafferty, CFA®
Senior Vice President – Chief Market Strategist
David T. Reilly, CFA®
Vice President – Investment Strategist
Investment Strategies Group (ISG)